National Football League MVP Race 2025: Who’s Leading?
The race for the 2025 National Football League Most Valuable Player (MVP) award has been nothing short of electrifying, injecting a potent dose of weekly drama into the league. Every Sunday, a brilliant performance or a late-game heroic instantly becomes the primary talking point for fans and analysts alike, constantly reshaping the narrative of who deserves the sport's highest individual honor.
The MVP award represents the pinnacle of individual achievement in the NFL. It is not just about having a great season; it’s about providing the most value to a successful team, often separating a franchise's season into pre- and post-MVP candidacy. This year, the debate is as fierce as ever. This article will dive into the top MVP candidates dominating the headlines, detail the unique criteria used to decide the award, explore the historical dominance of the quarterback position, identify the non-QB superstars with a chance to break the mold, and track how the race has twisted and turned throughout the 2025 season.
Who Are the Leading Candidates for the 2025 NFL MVP?
As the 2025 season progresses, a handful of elite quarterbacks—and one or two historic non-QBs—have separated themselves from the pack. The MVP award has always favored players on top playoff-bound teams, and this year is no exception.
The frontrunners, according to late-season analysis, feature a familiar cast of elite signal-callers.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: The reigning MVP is leading a Bills team poised for the AFC's top seed. Through Week 4 (as one snapshot of the season), Allen's numbers were stellar: 7 passing touchdowns, 3 rushing touchdowns, and only 1 interception, leading the Bills to a 4-0 record.
His combination of high-volume passing and crucial goal-line rushing contributions makes him the ultimate dual-threat weapon and a favorite to repeat. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens: A two-time MVP, Jackson is consistently a contender due to his revolutionary style of play.
In the prior 2024 season, he put up 4,172 passing yards, 41 TDs, and 4 INTs, alongside 914 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs, a combination that made him a First-Team All-Pro quarterback. Despite a slow team start (1-3 record through Week 4) this season, his individual performance remains elite, and if the Ravens surge, his case strengthens rapidly. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: The perennial favorite and a two-time MVP, Mahomes has been on a tear, catapulting from a mid-season sleeper to a true threat.
His late-season surge is characterized by high efficiency and game-winning drives. In a recent win against the Ravens, he completed 25 of 37 passes for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns, bringing his season-to-date total to 9 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs through four weeks. Team success—the Chiefs are perpetual playoff contenders—is always a pillar of his MVP argument. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: Known for his surgical accuracy, Burrow is a popular dark horse choice among many analysts, including those who believe he was the league's most valuable player in prior years despite team struggles.
His ability to elevate the offense with an elite TD-to-INT ratio and high yardage totals keeps him firmly in the mix, especially if the Bengals finish strong.
What Criteria Are Used To Select the NFL MVP?
The NFL MVP is not chosen by the league itself but by a panel of independent journalists.
The Voting System: The winner is selected by a panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters appointed by the Associated Press.
These voters follow the league closely and are independent of the NFL. Timing: Voting occurs at the end of the regular season, before the playoffs begin.
The results are kept secret and announced during the annual NFL Honors ceremony the day before the Super Bowl. Criteria Considered: While the term is "Most Valuable Player," the criteria often blend several factors:
Individual Performance & Statistics: Elite statistical rankings (passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, rushing yards, sacks, etc.).
Team Record & Success: The player must be the driving force behind a top playoff-bound team. Historically, an MVP must come from a team with an elite record (usually a division winner or top two seed).
Consistency: Sustained dominance throughout the full 17-game season.
The "Most Valuable" Narrative: Voters often debate whether they are choosing the "best" player or the player whose absence would cause the team to suffer the most.
How Do Quarterbacks Typically Dominate the MVP Race?
Quarterbacks have a near-monopoly on the MVP award, and the numbers illustrate this dominance clearly: a quarterback has won the NFL MVP award every year since 2012.
| Position | Last MVP Winner | Year Won |
| Quarterback (QB) | Josh Allen | 2024 |
| Running Back (RB) | Adrian Peterson | 2012 |
| Defensive Player (DE/LB) | Lawrence Taylor | 1986 |
Since the AP began presenting the award in 1957, 50 of the 54 undisputed winners have played an offensive position, with the majority being quarterbacks.
The reason for this statistical bias is the inherent value of the position. A quarterback touches the ball on virtually every offensive snap, is responsible for play calls, adjustments, ball protection, and is the ultimate decision-maker.
Which Non-Quarterbacks Could Challenge for MVP in 2025?
To win the MVP, a non-QB must not just be great but have a truly historic season—one that shatters records and arguably eclipses the impact of the top quarterbacks.
Running Backs: A rusher must approach 2,000 rushing yards and lead the league in total touchdowns, often while carrying a team into the playoffs. Candidates like Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles) or Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) could enter the conversation if they put up numbers near the 2012 benchmark of Adrian Peterson (2,097 rushing yards). Barkley, for instance, had a strong case in the previous year's voting, showing the position can still get attention.
Wide Receivers: Only a season that wins the "Receiving Triple Crown" (leading the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns) can force a WR into the debate. Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals), a popular Offensive Player of the Year candidate with elite yardage and TD numbers, would need a record-breaking year (like Cooper Kupp's 1,947 yards and 16 TDs in 2021) to generate a genuine MVP buzz.
Defensive Superstars: The challenge here is immense; only two defensive players have ever won the award: Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986).
A defensive player like a dominant pass rusher (e.g., Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons) would need a season of record-breaking sacks, forced turnovers, and even scoring plays to seriously challenge the QB hierarchy. The last player to even come close was J.J. Watt in 2014, who finished second in voting despite 20.5 sacks and three offensive touchdowns.
How Has the MVP Race Changed Throughout the 2025 Season?
The 2025 MVP race has been defined by mid-season volatility and signature moments.
Early-Season Favorites vs. Mid-Season Surges: Pre-season odds often favored a trio of established QBs: Jackson, Allen, and Mahomes. However, early in the season, two notable factors shifted the perception:
Rookie Breakout: The impressive play of a young star like Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders), who led his team to an unexpectedly strong start, briefly forced him into the top five of the discussion, leveraging his dual-threat ability to generate significant buzz.
Mahomes' Leap: A slow statistical start by Patrick Mahomes in Weeks 1-2 was quickly erased by a dominant stretch in Weeks 3-4, highlighted by a crucial win over a fellow contender (Ravens).
This single game acted as a major moment that catapulted his odds from longer shots to co-favorites.
Injury Impact: A minor injury to a leading candidate like Lamar Jackson could significantly depress his MVP hopes, illustrating how fluid the race is. The MVP is a marathon, and the importance of playing all 17 games cannot be overstated.
The race will ultimately be decided by which top-tier quarterback can maintain their statistical excellence while leading their team to a top-three seed in their respective conference.
FAQ Section
Who votes for the NFL MVP?The NFL MVP is voted on by a panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters selected by the Associated Press (AP).
Has a defensive player ever won MVP?Yes, but it is extremely rare. Only two defensive players have won the AP NFL MVP: defensive tackle Alan Page in 1971 and linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
How many times has a non-QB won MVP?Since the AP award began in 1957, an offensive non-QB (running back or wide receiver) has won the award 8 times.
When will the 2025 NFL MVP be announced?The winner of the 2025 NFL MVP award will be announced during the annual NFL Honors ceremony, typically held the night before the Super Bowl in February 2026.
Conclusion
The 2025 NFL MVP race is set up for a classic finish, likely pitting Josh Allen's consistency against Lamar Jackson's sheer dynamism and Patrick Mahomes' late-season supremacy. While running backs like Saquon Barkley provide a compelling alternative, the historical precedent—favoring the quarterback who combines elite statistics with a stellar team record—remains a powerful force.
The suspense is building, and with every signature win, clutch touchdown, or game-changing defensive play, the narrative shifts. Fans are encouraged to follow the weekly performances closely, as the true Most Valuable Player will be crowned after a thrilling final sprint to the finish line.
AllenForTwo
on October 01, 2025Josh Allen is the most well-rounded candidate. Top 5 passing, top 5 rushing for a QB, and an elite team record. He's doing more with less than the others. He's the safe bet to repeat.
DanielsHypeTrain
on October 01, 2025Don't sleep on Jayden Daniels if the Commanders keep winning! The sudden breakout of a young star always catches the eye of the voters. He’s the wildcard that could shake up the established order.